Interpreting PPE Projections

Limitations

The biggest uncertainty of these projections comes from the epidemiological models that we use as our input. Projections are more accurate within a 2-3 week horizon than further into the future, given the inherent uncertainty of predicting the exact course of the epidemic in different geographic regions.

We collected data and triangulated our estimates on actual PPE utilization through discussions with many clinicians within a single institution (Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA). Actual utilization patterns may differ at other hospitals or among other clinicians.

Currently our model accounts for utilization in inpatient settings but does not include outpatient care or home health. Our model currently does not account for PPE use by non-clinical staff, such as cleaning staff. We also do not model needs for PPE in non-COVID patients since the PPE-use assumptions are focused exclusively on PPE-use for COVID patients. Health care systems using this tool should be careful to make sure that they account for regular utilization for non-COVID patients, for outpatient, and for other non-clinical roles that require PPE.